Every draft cycle, some version of the same argument breaks out in war rooms and group chats: is this a college bat year? And every cycle, perhaps regardless of ceiling, the college bat quietly goes about owning roughly a third of the first round no matter what.
Over the last nine first rounds, college bats have averaged eleven of the top thirty picks, and in the boom years they've buried that number. 13 in 2019. 13 in 2022. 14 in 2023. And then 2024, the high-water mark — 15 college hitters inside the top thirty, a class so deep in polished thump that Travis Bazzana, Charlie Condon, Nick Kurtz, and Jac Caglianone all went before pick seven; three of which are MLB staples already.
When a front office spends a first-round pick on a college hitter, it expects it is buying the safest offensive profile in the …