Major League Baseball is set to upend much of its collective bargaining language in eleven months when owners and the MLBPA meets to restructure the business side of baseball. Talks of a salary cap, less minor league levels, expansion, rules and much more will all be on the table.
But baked into those negotiations will be the future of the MLB Draft. With this CBA, fundamental changes could be on the horizon.
The MLB Draft is no stranger to change. In 2012, the bonus pool system was introduced to help curb spending and limit bidding wars. In 2021, the MLB Draft was reduced from 40 to 20 rounds. This collective bargaining agreement may re-shape the draft in more consequential ways than ever before.
Talk of further shortening the MLB Draft has been buzzing for a few months. All signs suggest the draft will fall from 20 rounds to perhaps 10 or 15 rounds as soon as the 2028 Draft. Alongside that may come contraction in the minor leagues with the current A-ball level being eliminated in 2030.
Less draft rounds, less minor league baseball levels, less roster spots for players. With that comes talks of less eligibility in the draft as well.
The current whispers being floated around front offices and scouting departments suggest high school players may no longer be draft-eligible as soon as the 2028 Draft. To be sure, none of this is set in stone or agreed upon in any way yet. But it's a change that would certainly compliment some of other aforementioned suggestions discussed earlier in the article.
Reducing the number of rounds in the draft to coincide with a reduction in the number of levels in the minor leagues would support the elimination of the high school draft pick. Expecting high school draftees to be able to hang with college players drafted and sent directly to High-A would be a tall order. And surely teams would not be on board with keeping high school draft picks at the complex level for a year and a half just to get them up to speed. It's possible minor league levels are passively redefined on the development ladder with contraction. That said, it's still a move that inherently speeds up player timelines.
Just reading the tea leaves, it feels as though 2027 will be the last year high school players will be considered draft-eligible.
Surely, there would come changes to college eligibility too. It's possible college freshmen would immediately become eligible after their first year. Unless they were a first round talent, they'd ostensibly fill the role of the players with the most leverage, a role vacated with high school ineligibility. Freshmen would be expensive to sign. Perhaps any player that has finished two years of college baseball would be eligible instead of using wonky birthday cut-off dates to decide who can be selected. There's plenty of reason to believe more college prospects would be on draft boards.
Eligibility changes will perhaps be the most controversial alteration made to the draft with the next CBA. Chatter has begun to heat up about the draft moving back to the month of June -- a change that would be welcomed with open arms to scouts in the industry.
Baseball is in for a bumpy winter next year. Hopefully the changes coming to the draft will be viewed as a net positive for the event and the amateur baseball world as well.