2025 Draft Top 500

While Jackson Holliday was the prize in the 2022 MLB Draft, scouts got a first-hand look at his brother in their trips to Stillwater. The second-born of Matt Holliday's children, Ethan is far more physical than his older brother with huge raw power and a similarly beautiful left-handed stroke. Still extremely young, Holliday already tops the scales at 6-foot-4, 210 pounds with broad shoulders and plenty of projection to go. There's no question the raw power carries heavy value here and he should generate even more raw power as his frame matures.

Holliday is one of the top high school bats at this stage despite a streaky summer where he struggled to show his impact in games. There was more swing and miss than scouts were accustomed to seeing, especially when exposed to velocity. Holliday has a steeper move into the hitting zone and works underneath the baseball and works hard to catch it out in front. The result last summer was whiffs on elevated velocity and mis-hits if he's late. He'll need some swing adjustments at the next level if he's to reach his ceiling of what some believe is a high-average, slugging middle-of-the-order bat.

It's been a much more fruitful spring for Holliday as he's shown some adjustments with the swing. His load is a bit quieter and while his timing at the plate has been streaky, he's shown more of an ability to adjust in-game. He's hit north of .600 this season with enormous power output. Holliday needed to show without a shadow of a doubt that he's an improved hitter this spring to dispel the concerns from last summer and many believe he's done just that.

It's a swing not too dissimilar from Bryce Rainer a year ago. You'd be hard-pressed to find many scouts who aren't bullish on Holliday developing into significant impact at the next level even if it's a 40-grade hit tool. Holliday still posts minuscule chase rates and hit the ball in the air nearly 60 percent of the time across a big summer sample. He can get the ball in the air, but catching the fat part of the bat has been a struggle against better arms. You buy the tools here and trust in the development. Remember, his brother Jackson had a sluggish summer in 2021 too before blossoming into the top prospect in the sport.

Holliday is the starting shortstop at Stillwater High School, however he's played mostly third base on the tournament circuit. Because of his size and physical projection most scouts believe he'll end up at the hot corner long term. He's a fringe-average runner and doesn't project to grow into much more speed as a pro. It's special arm talent with some slapping 70-grade arm strength grades on the player. The hands are solid, if not above average. He should develop into at least an above-average defender at third base.

He's got some work to do in the spring to keep the lofty top-5 pick expectations. There are a number of outcomes for a player like Holliday when all is said and done. If the tools and talent come together he could end up as productive as a player like Matt Carpenter or Eric Chavez. If the swing-and-miss persists, a Ryan McMahon trajectory may be more fitting.

The thing that immediately stands out about Hernandez at this stage is his mature pitch-ability and his natural talent to pound the strike zone. He'll work into a lather and sit 92-96 as the innings build but Hernandez will touch 100 mph in the early goings. Hernandez has shown the arm strength to reach back into the high-90s toward the end of his outings too.

It's not the most dynamic fastball shape, but there's generally some carry that allows the heater to work elevated. When left at the bottom of the zone or in the heart of the plate Hernandez has struggled to generate whiffs despite his pure velocity.

His best weapon currently is a low-80s outlier changeup that he executes well by killing spin and creating depth off his fastball tunnel. Hernandez can dance the cambio generating considerable arm-side fading action to supplement its depth and velocity separation. It's likely a 'plus' pitch when all is said and done and could end up a 70-grade weapon if he's eventually able to extract more value out of his fastball.

There's a mid-80s slider with solid depth and some sweep as well. It's a breaker that's improved this spring, however it's not yet become his bread and butter. Most scouts see a potential above-average projection on the pitch, though pitching development, specifically breaking ball development, has gotten so much better in professional baseball of late, don't be surprised if he finds a way to turn that pitch into something more dynamic. There's also a bigger mid-70s curveball that he'll happily steal strikes with.

Outside of outlier fastball shape, Hernandez checks just about every box a scout could conceivably draw up for a high school pitcher. He's got a chance to develop into a frontline starter at the next level with a bit of refinement. Hernandez is one of the top prep arms in this class and has an argument as one of the better high school arms to come along in several years.

Hernandez will be 19 years old on draft day.

Arquette made his way from the island of Hawaii and became something of a star at the University of Washington. He transferred to Oregon State for his draft-eligible 2025 campaign after UW's Head Coach Jason Kelly left for Texas A&M following the 2024 season.

Arquette is long and projectable on the dirt and may ultimately shift to third base if he adds more physicality. As things stand he's a reasonably rangy infielder considering his size and a steady second baseman with a solid arm and nimble actions. He'll get more of a full-time look at shortstop for Oregon State in 2025. Arquette showcases a strong internal clock with soft hands and balance on the infield. Skeptics have long looked at his size as reason to believe he's destined for the outfield. He's continuously proved those doubters wrong.

Arquette's bat took mammoth strides during his sophomore year and it now has a chance to be one of the more complete offensive profiles in the country. There's bat-to-ball skills and huge exit velocities, both of which were shown off on the Cape too. Arquette has a steady approach and a willingness to use right field, a rare trait for players his size. It's raw power that plays into right-center field with backspinning batted balls that cut through thick, wet Pacific Northwest air. Arquette has proven susceptible to the slider this season, something he'll need to clean up or risk being exposed in pro ball. If there's one nitpicking trait scouts would like to see Arquette improve as the Draft nears it would be his patience at the plate. More specifically late in counts. He's in no rush to take walks and can get over-anxious on spin. Still, that's a rather minor wart on a scouting report covered with above average tools throughout.

Off the field, Arquette is the epitome of an island boy. He lives life at a slow tempo and is easy going. He'll turn on that competitive fire between the lines, but it's a slower heartbeat and an even keel personality elsewhere. The 95th percentile outcome on a player like Arquette is something of a Troy Tulowitzki. A floor-outcome could be someone like Mike Morse. He'll need to further prove he's a shortstop through and through should he hope to land those lofty comparisons when July rolls around.

A re-class from 2026, Eli Willits is a true switch-hitter in every sense of the word. Some guys fake it hitting from both sides and struggle from one side or the other. That's not the case here. From the left side Willits features a tight, compact swing with quick hands and twitchy hips. He uses the whole field and has an adjustability with the barrel that few can match. There's some moving parts in the load and some late barrel tilt that could test his ability to handle higher velocity arms, but to this point he's impressed in tournament settings and has had little issue squaring up fastballs in premium settings. Right now it's fringy raw power with ringing gap power. That said, Willits has a lean frame with the hands and projection you look for in a guy that could ultimately get to average or better raw power. From the right side it's a bit more bat speed with louder results and a bit more impact to all fields. The hit tool projects better from the left side, but he's far from a liability as a right-handed hitter. He clearly projects to be able to hit from both sides of the plate going forward. Interesting offensive tools from both sides of the plate.

Willits looks every bit the part of a future shortstop, centerfielder or up-the-middle defender too. He's a rangy defender who has demonstrated the ability to get to any ball. As a shortstop he excels when coming in on the grass and making the play on slow-rollers in front of him. He can get his body into the athletic positions necessary to make just about every throw. He's also an above average runner with long strides and a smooth gait that really projects to hold deep into professional ball. He's also shown plenty capable of playing a strong centerfield if teams want to give him run at the '8'. He takes some of the stronger routes in the class out there and demonstrates solid spacial awareness around the wall and warning track.

Perhaps the one nitpick analysts and some evaluators have on the entire profile is a general lack of explosive, twitchy athleticism. Willits doesn't stand out when it comes to force-plate testing or 30-/60-yard dash workouts. Skeptics of those results will point to a low ceiling from an impact perspective. Those bullish of his profile will point to his extraordinarily young age as means to reason a jump in explosiveness and strength on the horizon.

Willits has a chance to be one of the first players off the board if he adds a bit more impact at the plate. The tools are here for a special player. As noted, he will be extremely young for the draft, just 17.7 years old when he's selected.

Jamie Arnold is a metric freak. His ability to create velocity and angles from a 55-inch release height is reasonably unprecedented. Arnold has an extremely, outlier-esque flat approach angle with a fastball that absolutely feasts at the top of the zone. He's been up to 97 but more impressively holds 92-95 into the deepest innings of his starts. While all the metrics point toward this being a plus pitch, Arnold has struggled to miss bats with the heater like he did in 2024. It's still effective, but it's lacking the dominance you'd expect with the metrics it generates. It's still very much an above-average pitch, and chances are greater than not he'll get it back to plus in pro ball.

The fastball is really just the start of a complete arsenal. Arnold's sweeper is just as impressive featuring huge depth and big lateral action to get left-handed hitters looking foolish on the regular. He'll back-foot the breaking ball to right-handed hitters too. He commands the pitch well and his misses are competitive. It's every bit than of a 60-grade pitch and if it performs at this level in professional baseball, it's a breaking ball with 70-grade upside.

Arnold went to Driveline prior to the 2025 season to work on his pitch shapes, particularly his changeup. What was once inconsistent in terms of execution and consistency is now flashing way more impact potential. Arnold is generating enormous depth on the changeup and killing spin in ways few can. While it's still largely average in terms of command, landing that pitch anywhere in or near that zone makes for an offspeed pitch that'll consistently flash plus. It's an outlier, unicorn offspeed weapon that professional hitters have never seen.

As Arnold has matured into his craft, gotten stronger and has continued to better understand how his body works, his athleticism has continued to tick higher and higher. He's added nearly four inches of extension down the bump over the course of the last twelve months and it's allowing his entire arsenal to play even better than before. He's now generates well-above average extension compared to his Major League counterparts.

Arnold is a strike-thrower with a simple delivery, a loose arm and athleticism in his operation. He isn't necessarily a fast-mover and he doesn't possess a big, prototype frame either. Scouts are skeptical there's much more in the tank to be developed. Still, he's precisely what a top-of-the-rotation starter looks like. Scouts are looking for *different* when it comes to pitching prospects. Arnold is very different and will undoubtedly garner Chris Sale comparisons as the Draft approaches.